Monday, November 26, 2007

Jordan's Nuclear Program

Yes, We Do Have a Nuclear Program'


http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,518131,00.html

Jordanian King Abdullah II, 45, discusses this week's election in his desert state, war and peace in the Middle East and Amman's desire to establish a civilian atomic energy program.

King Abdullah II: "The price of oil is a major economic hurdle in Jordan."
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AFP

King Abdullah II: "The price of oil is a major economic hurdle in Jordan."

SPIEGEL: Your Majesty, this week Jordan is going to the polls to vote for a new parliament. What executive powers is this new assembly going to have?

Abdullah: We're hoping that this parliament will create a new political landscape. We need fewer, more broad-ranging parties -- ideally two, three or four representing the left- and right-wings and the political center.

SPIEGEL: Will enough Jordanians actually go to the polls?

Abdullah: We've been talking a lot to the youth. I am concerned with getting young people more involved in the decision-making process of this country.

SPIEGEL: There are fears that the election results may be manipulated. The Islamists are even considering boycotting the elections.

FROM THE MAGAZINE

Abdullah: We experienced that in the municipal elections, when leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood in foreign countries pressured Islamists in Jordan not to take part in the election to prevent them getting the necessary quorum. My instructions to the government were to make sure the elections were transparent. The Muslim Brotherhood have a good chance, and I hope they're going to be good sports about it. Ultimately, it is my responsibility to make sure that the elections are clean and everything works out well.

SPIEGEL: Democracy is always associated with a risk that those who are enemies of democracy can be elected. What is the lesson to be learned from Hamas' victory in the Palestinian territories? Is stability more important to you than democracy?

Abdullah: I think the success of democracy is not really police security; it's the presence of a broad middle class. The stronger the middle class of a people is, the less you have to worry about one group coming in and exploiting the democratic process for its own ends. Our economic and social reforms are trying to strengthen the development of the middle class.

SPIEGEL: And what is the situation of the middle class in Jordan?

Abdullah: The middle class today in Jordan is shaky -- that has to do with the situation in the Middle East and the current price of oil. That is something we have to work on, and parliament will have to address that over the next four years. Parliamentarians must be active in improving education, health and social security -- that's what's important. I think the future of the Middle East lies in the hands of a strong, responsible middle class. And we have to admit that this political class is not really there yet.

SPIEGEL: How far have you come with your economic reforms? Where do you hope to find the investors to bring your country forward?

Graphic: The Shiite Crescent
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DER SPIEGEL

Graphic: The Shiite Crescent

Abdullah: The economy has improved dramatically since 1999. We need to harness that growth to fight unemployment and poverty -- and do a lot more for education than has been the case until now. We put every extra dinar we have into the education system. Many Jordanians are working in the Gulf states. We'd like them to come back and find jobs in Jordan. That's why I went to Germany last week to solicit investment. We aim to realize major infrastructure projects: alternative energy sources, water supply. Jordan may be a small country, but we are also a gateway to the Arab world.

SPIEGEL: Jordan and Egypt are the only Arab states to have concluded a peace treaty with Israel. Has this treaty paid off for you economically?

Abdullah: Peace with Israel is a strategic imperative for Jordan. As far as the direct impact on the Jordanian economy, our initial expecations have not been fulfilled. However, I am nevertheless convinced that our trade relations will profit once there is true peace in the region.

SPIEGEL: In the past 30 years the population of Jordan has almost doubled. And it is still growing rapidly -- primarily because of the continuing influx of refugees.

Abdullah: This has always been our lot, and we just have to live with it. The critical problem is the issue of water. Our reserves will soon be exhausted and we must take concrete measures in the next couple of years to solve the problem. We are planning major projects. I think there is a role for German companies to help us with that. I'm talking about the groundwater reservoir on the Gulf of Aqaba, the Red and Dead Sea Canal (more...) and desalinization projects.

A car bomb attack in Baghdad: "I'm afraid these attacks will continue in the future."
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A car bomb attack in Baghdad: "I'm afraid these attacks will continue in the future."

SPIEGEL: About 750,000 Iraqi refugees are currently residing in Jordan (more...). What is going to happen to them?

Abdullah: The overwhelming majority want to return to Iraq. In Jordan we are a bit sensitive about this issue, simply due to our history...

SPIEGEL: ... because in the years following the Israeli-Arab war of 1948 you took in millions of Palestinians, whose descendants now make up the majority of the Jordanian population.

Abdullah: We do not want to be a dumping ground for refugees. At the same time, we have a humanitarian obligation; we can't really close the borders and turn back people who are in need. It's very difficult to strike the right balance.

SPIEGEL: What is your perspective on the Iraqi situation now? Is the worst over?

Abdullah: There are good and bad days. It's going to take a long time. Iraq will be dependent on the efforts of the international community for years to come. But if you look at the three most volatile issues in the Middle East -- the Palestinian, Lebanese and Iraqi issues -- I tend to put Iraq in third place. The Israeli-Palestinian situation creates many more problems, followed by what's going on in Lebanon.

SPIEGEL: At the moment the number of suicide attacks in Iraq seems to be declining.

Abdullah: I'm afraid these attacks will continue in the future. What has changed is the attitude of the Sunnis in Iraq towards al-Qaida. They are fed up with al-Qaida, so now al-Qaida is not just dealing with US forces, it has to deal with the local population -- at least in the province of Anbar. That is an improvement.

SPIEGEL: The Palestinian refugee drama is one of the main reasons behind the political crisis in the Middle East. Will the refugees coming from Iraq create similar crises?

Abdullah: The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is different in that it affects two different peoples. Ultimately, in the case of Iraq all the people involved are Iraqis -- Shiites and Sunnis, Kurds and Arabs. Iraq is an established nation and most Iraqis want to keep their country together.

SPIEGEL: You sound more much optimistic than you did a year ago (more...).

Mideast negotiating partners -- Palestinian Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert in Jerusalem: "Do we really want to allow the Middle East to be engulfed by violance for another ten or 15 years?"
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Mideast negotiating partners -- Palestinian Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert in Jerusalem: "Do we really want to allow the Middle East to be engulfed by violance for another ten or 15 years?"

Abdullah: Again, I believe the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is a more serious problem. If we don't make decisive progress in the next six or seven months, we won't be in a position to achieve anything for at least the next four or five years. We do need American involvement to solve this issue, and, whether we like it or not, it will be at least two years before the next American president is in a position to re-tackle this problem. We must, therefore, use the coming months as our last opportunity. Or do we really want to allow the Middle East to be engulfed by violence for another 10 or 15 years?

SPIEGEL: The next big conference on the Middle East will take place in the US city of Annapolis in two weeks. What do you expect?

Abdullah: We are concerned about how little we know about the details of this conference. All the information is very general. If it's still so vague at the start of the conference, I fear we'll be in for some surprises in Annapolis. It's high time we knew more about the concrete agenda.

SPIEGEL: Is Israel reluctant to agree to a concrete agenda?

Abdullah: What I hear from Israel's Prime Minister, Ehud Olmert, is positive. I'm not so sure about those around him. Olmert and President Mahmud Abbas have a good relationship and they both see where this needs to go. I just hope the negotiating teams come up with strategies that enable us to make progress in Annapolis.

SPIEGEL: What surprises are you concerned about? A return to the so-called "Jordanian solution" -- a federation of Jordan and the West Bank?

Graphic: The Middle East's atomic ambitions
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Graphic: The Middle East's atomic ambitions

Abdullah: The Jordanian solution is not a solution, absolutely not. It will not be accepted by Arab world or by the Palestinians. It would be an outrage. Israel would embarrass itself with such a suggestion and be put in a very difficult position.

SPIEGEL: For some time now, many Arab countries have been talking about their desire to start a nuclear program. Why has that happened all of a sudden?

Abdullah: Take a look at the price of oil. This is not anything new. Countries such as Jordan have been talking to the West about the use of nuclear energy for two, three years. The price of oil is a major economic hurdle in Jordan, so I think we need to move quickly. Of course, all of this must be transparent and in agreement with the relevant international organizations. I hope that none of the countries in the Middle East are planning anything but the peaceful utilization of nuclear energy.

SPIEGEL: Iran, too?

Abdullah: Not the Arab countries, in any case. Iran, I believe, does have aspirations to develop nuclear weapons. The Iranians themselves are saying that. But we have to avoid any ambiguity. After all, Jordan already has one neighbor with nuclear capabilities.

SPIEGEL: Israel, which has not officially admitted that it has nuclear weapons.

Abdullah: I think we need to have transparency from all the countries in the region. For the safety of all of us.

SPIEGEL: Do you have a concrete schedule for your nuclear program?

Abdullah: We're fortunate to be sitting on 3 percent of the world's uranium reserves, and we have very high quality uranium here in Jordan. That makes nuclear energy all the more interesting for us. So, yes, we do have a nuclear program, and we'll probably do it through the private sector.

SPIEGEL: Even years ago, you warned about the strengthening Shiite nations and the emergence of a "Shiite Crescent." Has history proven you to be correct?

Abdullah: Our major concern was that one country was using Shiite Islam, in other words, religion, as a political tool. Today we have countries that we regard either as moderate or extreme. The moderate countries are Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and most of the Gulf states. On the other side you have Iran, Syria and, to a certain extent, Hamas in Gaza und Hezbollah in Lebanon. I hope that the peace process and the dividends it brings will help us to relieve such tensions.

SPIEGEL: Your Majesty, we thank you for this interview.

Interview conducted by Martin Doerry, Gerhard Spörl and Bernhard Zand.

Friday, November 23, 2007

Czech counter-intelligence accomplishments appear at Radio Praha

BIS, the Czech counterintelligence service, seems to use state radio to brag about its accomplishments and help push foreign policy from time to time. For example, I came across a recent story: Czech intelligence: Half of Russia’s diplomats in the Czech Republic are spies, about how the Russians are abusing their privileges in the republic by stacking their diplomatic, journalistic, and commercial establishments with intelligence officers. That led me to last year's article (below) about how BIS had thwarted DPRK efforts to acquire nuclear technology from Czech sources.

Don't forget foreign sources when searching for information about your topic. The BBC and Reuters aren't the only informative foreign news services, for example. And the Russian and Chinese foreign ministries are particularly content rich, if biased.

[13 November 2006] By Linda Mastalir, Radio Praha

Over the weekend, BIS, the Czech intelligence agency, made a surprising announcement: North Korean agents have made three known attempts to purchase component parts for their nuclear program from Czech sources within the past year.

Such successes are not always reported, but BIS has revealed that during 2005 it detected and stopped three attempts by North Korean agents to purchase special equipment intended to enhance North Korea's nuclear arms program. In each case, employees of North Korean companies visiting the Czech Republic expressed interest in specialized dual-use machines and their spare parts.

Experts say that North Korea desires the special equipment for production of both conventional and nuclear weapons, as well as their launchers. The technology in question would enable North Korea to produce a much smaller nuclear weapon than its current technology allows. The compatible launchers could then send the smaller nuclear warheads much farther abroad.

BIS spokesman Jan Subrt says that in 2005 the Czech secret service managed to stop three export deals destined for North Korea. When the first attempt to buy and export the equipment failed, North Korea reportedly tried to make the purchase via a third, unnamed country. According to the counter-intelligence agency, North Korea has shown a consistent interest in the Czech Republic as a source country for the equipment.
Despite protests over a series of missile tests it conducted in July, North Korea conducted an underground test of a nuclear weapon on October 9. The move led to a United Nations Security Council resolution imposing sanctions on North Korea, and strict inspection of cargo headed into and out of the country. The technology at the centre of the latest revelations has been on the Czech Republic's export-ban list since 2003.

Friday, November 16, 2007

Pennsylvania Nuke News Notes

Forbes.com has an interesting article on the "Nuclear Renaissance" and how to invest in the industry at the various points along the fuel cycle. It suggests that Americans have renewed interest in nuclear energy, after several scares thirty years ago -- the film China Syndrome, Three-Mile Island (near Harrisburg, PA), and Chernobyl in the Soviet Ukraine. All of the same talking points, interestingly enough, are covered in an article released at about the same time in The Mankato Free Press.

Speaking of Three Mile Island, one of its reactors showed a possible decrease in pressure during a maintenance outage, so the owner, Exelon Corp, had to file an unusual activity report with the NRC. A news report says that Exelon decided it was an erroneous reading of the gauges, not a problem with the reactor. Such events are often reported in the press.

Under the category Not In My Backyard, or maybe better, If You Don't Build It, They Won't Come, The Patriot News is happy with its 1998 suggestion that Pennsylvania hold out for other states to take our nuclear waste. They opposed a search for nuclear storage facilities within Pennsylvania and feel vindicated that their sit tight posture is paying off -- the high grade materials can stay temporarily onsite at nuclear power plants (that's not in Pennsylvania, really) and the low grade stuff is losing its home at Barnwell but can probably be sent to a facility in Utah or a new one being considered in Texas. The article suggests that nuclear waste is on the decline, but they've not read the advocacy articles above, evidently.

Curtiss-Wright Corp's Electro-mechanical Division has received a $440k grant from Penn Dept of Community and Economic Development towards building a USD 62 million plant in Cheswick, Pa. The plant will manufacture 16 nuclear reactor coolant pumps under a contract with Westinghouse. Cheswick is in Allegheny County.

Tuesday, November 13, 2007

Iran Hands IAEA Nuclear Blueprints


By GEORGE JAHN, Associated Press Writer Tues. Nov 13, 4:21 PM ET

VIENNA, Austria (AP) -- Iran has met a key demand of the U.N. nuclear agency, handing over long-sought blueprints showing how to mold uranium metal into the shape of warheads, diplomats said Tuesday.

Iran's decision to release the documents, which were seen by U.N. inspectors two years ago, was seen as a concession designed to head off the threat of new U.N. sanctions.

But the diplomats said Tehran has failed to meet other requests made by the International Atomic Energy Agency in its attempts to end nearly two decades of nuclear secrecy on the part of Iran.

The diplomats spoke to The Associated Press as IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei put the finishing touches on his latest report to his agency's 35-nation board of governors for consideration next week. While ElBaradei is expected to say that Iran has improved its cooperation with his agency's probe, the findings are unlikely to deter the United States, France and Britain from pushing for a third set of U.N. sanctions.

The agency has been seeking possession of the blueprints since 2005, when it stumbled upon them among a batch of other documents during its examination of suspect Iranian nuclear activities. While agency inspectors had been allowed to examine them in the country, Tehran had up to now refused to let the IAEA have a copy for closer perusal.

Diplomats accredited to the agency, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were divulging confidential information, said the drawings were hand-carried by Mohammad Saeedi, deputy director of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization and handed over last week in Vienna to Oli Heinonen, an ElBaradei deputy in charge of the Iran investigations.

Iran maintains it was given the papers without asking for them during its black market purchases of nuclear equipment decades ago that now serve as the backbone of its program to enrich uranium - a process that can generate both power or create the fissile core of nuclear warheads. Iran's refusal to suspend enrichment has been the main trigger for both existing U.N. sanctions and the threat of new ones.

Both the IAEA and other experts have categorized the instructions outlined in the blueprints as having no value outside of a nuclear weapons program.

While ElBaradei's report is likely to mention the Iranian concession on the drawings and other progress made in clearing up ambiguities in Iran's nuclear activities, it was unclear whether it would also detail examples of what the diplomats said were continued Iranian stonewalling.

Senior IAEA officials were refused interviews with at least two top Iranian nuclear officials suspected of possible involvement in a weapons program, they said. One was the leader of a physics laboratory at Lavizan, outside Tehran, which was razed before the agency had a chance to investigate activities there. The other was in charge of developing Iran's centrifuges, used to enrich uranium.

Monday, November 12, 2007

Pelindaba Nuclear Facility Attacked... What Was Taken?

To me there seems to be something not right about this situation. It may be something worth researching, especially since the previous general manager of the power plant was killed in Montana, South Africa and the IAEA is about to go there for a Conference.

From the Pretoria Newspaper

A brazen attack by four gunmen on the Pelindaba nuclear facility has left a senior emergency officer seriously injured.Anton Gerber, Necsa emergency services operational officer spoke to the Pretoria News from his hospital bed hours after the attack.He was shot in the chest when the gunmen stormed the facility's emergency response control room in the early hours of Thursday morning.The shooting comes four months after Necsa's newly appointed services general manager Eric Lerata, 43, was gunned down in front of his Montana home after returning from a business trip in France.

Pelindaba is regarded as one of the country's most secure national key points. It is surrounded by electric fencing, has 24-hour CCTV surveillance, security guards and security controls and checkpoints.The attack comes as the country prepares to preside over an International Atomic Energy Agency convention on nuclear safety.The convention is aimed at achieving a high level of global nuclear safety via safety related technical co-operation; establishing and maintaining effective defences in nuclear installations against potential radiological hazards and preventing accidents with radiological consequences.A visibly shaken Gerber, who was rushed to Eugene Marais hospital, on Thursday said that he was sitting in the control room with his fiancée Ria Meiring when he heard a loud bang.

'I could not let anything like that happen' Meiring, who was working nightshift, is the supervisor of the control room.Gerber said he kept Meiring company. "I do not like it when she is at work at night and I go with her to keep her company and ensure that she is safe," he said.Describing the attack Gerber said they were inside the electronically sealed control room when they heard a loud bang.They then spotted the gunmen coming into the facility's eastern block.

It is believed that the attackers gained access to the building by using a ladder from Pelindaba's fire brigade and scaling a wall. The men are thought to have forced open a window by pulling out several louvers.Pushing Meiring underneath a desk, Gerber attacked two of the gunmen as they forced their way into the control room and ran straight for the control panel."I did not know what they were going to do. I just kept on hitting them even when one of them attacked me with a screwdriver. "I knew that if I stopped they would attack Ria or do something to the panel."I could not let anything like that happen," he said.

Unbeknownst to Gerber one of the robbers had shot him in the chest as he fought them off.The bullet narrowly missed his heart breaking a rib before puncturing his lung. Doctors said the bullet missed his spine by 2cm.Gerber, who at one stage thought he was going to die, said he had been very scared."The facility is meant to be safe. There are security guards, electric fences and security control points. These things are not meant to happen," he said.

NESCA spokesperson Chantal Janneker confirmed the attack.She declined to say how the gunmen had gained access to the facility or whether they had stolen anything.Janneker said NESCA was conducting an internal investigation into the attack. Once the police investigation was complete NESCA would divulge what happened, she said.

Later in the afternoon, Pretoria News was phoned by a man identifying himself as a Necsa legal adviser, saying the newspaper will be breaching the National Keypoints Act by publishing the story. He said that Necsa may seek a court order preventing dissemination of the story.He claimed that the interview with Gerber was "unethical" as "he was under sedation and thus incoherent" when it was conducted.

Pretoria News sought and was granted permission to interview Gerber, by hospital management, and Gerber himself. While he was obviously in pain, he appeared coherent and made sense throughout the interview. His recall of the events was sequential and to the point. He also agreed to have his picture taken in his hospital bed.North West police spokesperson Superintendent Louis Jacobs said that no arrests had been made."A case of armed robbery and attempted murder are being investigated," he said.

Sunday, November 11, 2007

Suitcase nukes said unlikely to exist

By KATHERINE SHRADER, Associated Press Writer Sat Nov 10, 11:23 AM ET

WASHINGTON - Members of Congress have warned about the dangers of suitcase nuclear weapons. Hollywood has made television shows and movies about them. Even the Federal Emergency Management Agency has alerted Americans to a threat — information the White House includes on its Web site.

But government experts and intelligence officials say such a threat gets vastly more attention than it deserves. These officials said a true suitcase nuke would be highly complex to produce, require significant upkeep and cost a small fortune.

Counterproliferation authorities do not completely rule out the possibility that these portable devices once existed. But they do not think the threat remains.

"The suitcase nuke is an exciting topic that really lends itself to movies," said Vahid Majidi, the assistant director of the FBI's Weapons of Mass Destruction Directorate. "No one has been able to truly identify the existence of these devices."

Majidi and other government officials say the real threat is from a terrorist who does not care about the size of his nuclear detonation and is willing to improvise, using a less deadly and sophisticated device assembled from stolen or black-market nuclear material.

Yet Hollywood has seized on the threat. For example, the Fox thriller "24" devoted its entire last season to Jack Bauer's hunt for suitcase nukes in Los Angeles.

Government officials have played up the threat, too.

Sen. Byron Dorgan, D-N.D., once said at a hearing that he thought the least likely threat was from an intercontinental ballistic missile. "Perhaps the most likely threat is from a suitcase nuclear weapon in a rusty car on a dock in New York City," he said.

In a FEMA guide on terrorist disasters that is posted in part on the White House's Web site, the agency warns that terrorists' use of a nuclear weapon would "probably be limited to a single smaller 'suitcase' weapon."

"The strength of such a weapon would be in the range of the bombs used during World War II. The nature of the effects would be the same as a weapon delivered by an intercontinental missile, but the area and severity of the effects would be significantly more limited," the paper says.

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THE GENIE THAT ESCAPED

During the 1960s, intelligence agencies received reports from defectors that Soviet military intelligence officers were carrying portable nuclear devices in suitcases.

The threat was too scary to stay secret, government officials said, and word leaked out. The genie was never put back in the bottle.

But current and former government officials who have not spoken out publicly on the subject acknowledge that no U.S. officials have seen a Soviet-made suitcase nuke.

The idea of portable nuclear devices was not a new one.

In the 1950s and 1960s, the U.S. made the first ones, known as the Special Atomic Demolition Munition. It was a "backpack nuke" that could be used to blow up dams, tunnels or bridges. While one person could lug it on his back, it had to be placed by a two-man team.

These devices never were used and now exist — minus their explosive components — only in a museum.

Following the U.S. lead, the Soviets are believed to have made similar nuclear devices.

Suitcase nukes have been a separate problem. They attracted considerable public attention in 1997, thanks to a "60 Minutes" interview and other public statements from retired Gen. Alexander Lebed, once Russia's national security chief.

Lebed said the separatist government in Chechnya had portable nuclear devices, which led him to create a commission to get to the bottom of the Chechen arsenal, according to a Center for Nonproliferation Studies report. He said that when he ran the security service, the commission could find only 48 of 132 devices.

The numbers varied as he changed his story several times — sometimes he stated that 100 or more were missing. The Russians denied he was ever accurate.

Even more details emerged in the summer of 1998, when former Russian military intelligence officer Stanislav Lunev — a defector in the U.S. witness protection program — wrote in his book that Russian agents were hiding suitcase nukes around the U.S. for use in a possible future conflict.

"I had very clear instructions: These dead-drop positions would need to be for all types of weapons, including nuclear weapons," Lunev testified during a congressional hearing in California in 2000, according to a Los Angeles Times account.

Naysayers noted that he was never able to pinpoint any specific location.

In a 2004 interview with the Kremlin's Federal News Service, Colonel-General Viktor Yesin, former head of the Russian strategic rocket troops, said he believes that Lebed's commission may have been misled by mock-ups of special mines used during training.

Yesin believed that a true suitcase nuke would be too expensive for most countries to produce and would not last more than several months because the nuclear core would decompose so quickly. "Nobody at the present stage seeks to develop such devices," he asserted.

Some members of Congress remained convinced that the suitcase nuke problem persists. Perhaps chief among these lawmakers was Curt Weldon, a GOP representative from Pennsylvania who lost his seat in 2006.

Weldon was known for carrying around a mock-up of a suitcase nuke made with a briefcase, foil and a pipe. But it was nowhere near the weight of an actual atomic device.

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THE SCIENCE

Majidi joined the FBI after leading Los Alamos National Laboratory's prestigious chemistry division. He uses science to make the case that suitcase nukes are not a top concern.

First, he defines what a Hollywood-esque suitcase nuke would look like: a case about 24 inches by 10 inches by 12 inches, weighing less than 50 pounds, that one person could carry. It would contain a device that could cause a devastating blast.

Nuclear devices are either plutonium, which comes from reprocessing the nuclear material from reactors, or uranium, which comes from gradually enriching that naturally found element.

Majidi says it would take about 22 pounds of plutonium or 130 pounds of uranium to create a nuclear detonation. Both would require explosives to set off the blast, but significantly more for the uranium.

Although uranium is considered easier for terrorists to obtain, it would be too heavy for one person to lug around in a suitcase.

Plutonium, he notes, would require the cooperation of a state with a plutonium reprocessing program. It seems highly unlikely that a country would knowingly cooperate with terrorists because the device would bear the chemical fingerprints of that government. "I don't think any nation is willing to participate in this type of activity," Majidi said.

That means the fissile material probably would have to be stolen. "It is very difficult for that much material to walk away," he added.

There is one more wrinkle: Nuclear devices require a lot of maintenance because the material that makes them so deadly also can wreak havoc on their electrical systems.

"The more compact the devices are — guess what? — the more frequently they need to be maintained. Everything is compactly designed around that radiation source, which damages everything over a period of time," Majidi said.

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PROVING A NEGATIVE

A former CIA director, George Tenet, is convinced that al-Qaida wants to change history with the mushroom cloud of a nuclear attack. In 1998, Osama bin Laden issued a statement called "The Nuclear Bomb of Islam."

"It is the duty of Muslims to prepare as much force as possible to terrorize the enemies of God," he said.

Among numerous of avenues of investigation after the Sept. 11 attacks, Tenet said in his memoir that President Bush asked Russian President Vladamir Putin whether he could account for all of Russia's nuclear material. Choosing his words carefully, Tenet said, Putin replied that he could only account for everything under his watch, leaving a void before 2000.

Intelligence officials continued digging deeper, hearing more reports about al-Qaida's efforts to get a weapon; that effort, it is believed, has been to no avail, so far.

But intelligence officials are loath to dismiss a threat until they are absolutely sure they have gotten to the bottom of it.

In the case of suitcase nukes, one official said, U.S. experts do not have 100 percent certainty that they have a handle on the Russian arsenal.

Laura Holgate, a vice president at the Nuclear Threat Initiative, says the U.S. has not appropriately prioritized its responses to the nuclear threat and, as a result, is poorly using its scarce resources.

Much to many people's surprise, she noted, highly enriched uranium — outside of a weapon — is so benign that a person can hold it in his hands and not face any ill effects until years later, if at all. It can also slip through U.S. safeguards, she says.

The Homeland Security Department is planning to spend more than $1 billion on radiation detectors at ports of entry. But government auditors found that the devices cannot distinguish between benign radiation sources, such as kitty litter, and potentially dangerous ones, including highly enriched uranium.

Holgate considers the substance the greatest threat because it exists not only at nuclear weapons sites worldwide, but also in more than 100 civilian research facilities in dozens of countries, often with inadequate security.

Her Washington-based nonproliferation organization wants to see the U.S. get a better handle on the material that can be used for bombs — much of it is in Russia — and secure it.

The big problem, she said, is not a fancy suitcase nuke, but rather a terrorist cell with nuclear material that has enough knowledge to make an improvised device.

How big would that be? "Like SUV-sized. Way bigger than a suitcase," she said.

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071110/ap_on_go_ot/tale_of_the_suitcase_nuke



Monday, November 5, 2007

North Korea Begins Shut Down of Yongbyon


SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — North Korea was expected to begin disabling its nuclear facilities Monday, marking the biggest step the communist country has ever taken to scale back its atomic program.

The North shut down its sole functioning nuclear reactor at Yongbyon in July, and promised to disable it by year's end in exchange for energy aid and political concessions from other members of talks on its nuclear program: the U.S., China, Japan, South Korea and Russia.

Disabling the reactor at Yongbyon, north of Pyongyang, would mark a further breakthrough in efforts to convince the North to scale back its nuclear program. The country conducted its first-ever nuclear test in October of last year.

Hill said the U.S. intends to achieve the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula while President Bush is still in power, and that North Korea — one of the world's most isolated countries — appeared to be opening up. To disable the program, the facilities must be stripped sufficiently that it would take at least a year for North Korea to start them up again, Hill said.

Hill added the U.S. hoped to disable North's uranium enrichment program by Dec. 31, not just its plutonium-production facilities at Yongbyon.

The envoy said American lawyers were working with North Korea to prepare to remove it from a U.S. list of states sponsoring terrorism, but that Pyongyang ultimately needed to meet requirements stipulated under U.S. law. Taking Pyongyang off the terror list, long a key demand of the North, was one of a series of economic and political concessions offered for the country to disable its nuclear reactor that produces plutonium for bombs.

Saturday, November 3, 2007

Palo Verde locked down as explosive device discovered in truck

Friday, November 2, 2007 - 1:20 PM MST

The Business Journal of Phoenix - by Ty Young Phoenix Business Journal

Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station officials have locked down the facility after security guards stopped a pickup truck carrying a suspicious device, authorities said.

The driver of the truck was a contract worker. The device, according to reports from the Maricopa County Sheriff's Office, was a small capped pipe with suspicious residue. Department officials confirmed that the pipe was a credible explosive device.

The device was removed from the plant, and the contract worker was denied further access. The FBI is investigating the incident.

"Our security personnel acted cautiously and appropriately, demonstrating that our security process and procedures work as designed," Randy Edington, chief nuclear officer for plant operator Arizona Public Service Co., said in a statement.

APS is the majority owner of Palo Verde, the largest nuclear plant in the country.

The incident was considered the lowest of emergency grades, according to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. NRC officials said the plant is not at any further risk.

The station has been under increased security because workers are replacing the Unit 3 steam generator, an 800-ton, 75-foot-tall cylindrical device responsible for powering the unit.

The contract worker was stopped at the heavily secured entry gate approximately half a mile from the Unit 1 reactor. Dozens of armed security guards are stationed at the entry gate. They check the engines, undercarriages, and passenger and cargo areas of every vehicle entering the premises.

"It demonstrates the guards were attentive and alert," said NRC spokesman Victor Dricks.

The station is in Wintersburg, about 50 miles west of Phoenix.

Phoenix Business Journal

Thursday, November 1, 2007

South Korean Generators for Detroit's Fermi Nuke Plant Shipped via Lake Erie

Interesting to see how nuclear power plant equipment travels the world and right by Erie.

Port of Toledo chosen to handle heavy cargo
2 South Korean transformers destined for Fermi plant
The first of two electrical transformers is unloaded from the M.V. Jumbo Spirit at the Port of Toledo for Newport, Mich.
( THE BLADE/HERRAL LONG )

When Don Johnson scouted western Lake Erie ports for places to unload two huge transformers destined for Detroit Edison's Fermi 2 nuclear generating plant north of Monroe, he checked Detroit and several smaller ports.
But only the Port of Toledo had the wharf space and the on-dock rail access he sought for the heavy-lift cargo.
So, Toledo was where the two transformers, built in South Korea and shipped around the world and through the St. Lawrence Seaway, were hoisted from the M.V. Jumbo Spirit's hold and deposited on solid ground yesterday.
The larger of the two, weighing 513 tons, was rigged into a special heavy-duty railcar for movement, starting today, to the power plant in Frenchtown Township, while the second, coming in at a paltry 404 tons, is to finish its journey next week.
"This is a very efficiently run, modern port," Mr. Johnson, the vice president of Gulf Logistics & Projects Co., Inc., based in Houston, said while watching a combination of longshoremen, contractor employees, and ship's crew unload the larger transformer yesterday morning.
In particular, Mr. Johnson cited dock-space availability and reasonable labor costs as reasons for choosing Toledo over alternatives.
The only problem with Toledo is that the Great Lakes don't have scheduled ships for "break-bulk" cargoes, like the big transformers, he said - but if the shipment is lucrative enough, a vessel can be chartered, as in the current case.

The 513-ton transformer is loaded onto a specialized railcar, known as a Schnabel car, that has 20 axles.

Mr. Johnson has plenty of opportunities to see how ports handle cargoes like the big transformers - his firm manages several such shipments a month, including an upcoming delivery of nine transformers to Houston that will be distributed to six midwestern destinations.
"The whole country built a wonderful electrical system 50 years ago, but transformers wear out and need to be replaced," said Mr. Johnson, who sees potential for more such shipments through Toledo.
Thomas Kaercher, Jr., a sales representative for transformer manufacturer Hyundai Heavy Industries, said the firm has several on order by Consumers' Energy of Michigan, but he doesn't know how they'll be delivered. "We haven't figured out the logistics yet, but it's a possibility" they'll be shipped via Toledo, he said.
"It demonstrates our capability, especially for the intermodal [ship-to-rail] transfer of heavy-lift cargo," said Todd Audet, the vice president of operations for Midwest Terminals of Toledo International, the stevedore at the Toledo-Lucas County Port Authority's general cargo docks.
"This particular cargo probably couldn't go over the highway," Mr. Audet said.
"We have certainly laid the groundwork" for future "special project" cargoes, said Warren McCrimmon, seaport director for the port authority, "and not just for the energy industry."
Such cargoes are generally good revenue generators for everyone involved in moving them because they require special handling, Mr. McCrimmon said.
The specialized railcar upon which the transformers will be shipped is known as a Schnabel car. It is actually two sections that attach to either end of the transformer, has 20 axles, and itself weighs 250 tons. Its design allows it to distribute the transformers' weight so they can be transported without damaging track or collapsing bridges.
Mr. Audet said the schedule calls for the first transformer to be delivered to Fermi and the special railcar to be returned to the Toledo dock within five days. He expressed eagerness to see that schedule kept because several ships are expected to arrive next week with holds full of natural-gas pipe, coal, and limestone to be unloaded.
The coal, he said, is destined for Toledo Edison's Bay Shore power plant in Oregon, a facility that usually receives all its fuel by train.
The coal will be trucked from the docks to the plant, and then the trucks will return with ash from Bay Shore that will be shipped to a cement plant in northern Michigan.


Toledo Blade